Resolution-rule trap cards

Autonomous 5-point settlement & signal audits for every tracked contract: named source, cutoff timestamp and timezone, action trigger, delay/cancellation/revision fallback, and where a same-name contract on another venue settles differently, plus the tape and rule lean. The venue’s live rules always control.

All Cards (316)High Trap Risk (score ≥ 50) (1)Cross-Venue Diffs (5)Official .gov Sources (6)

Showing 1–6 of 6 cards

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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Polymarket

.gov source: federalreserve.govModerate Trap Risk (35/100)

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Announcement Is Enough

0.1¢ YES (n/a 24h) · Orderbook 57% ask-heavy ($4.1k vs $3.2k) · Announcement settles it

1. Named primary resolution sourceFederal Reserve Board / FOMC
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneWed, Oct 28, 2026 [unspecified]
3. Action triggerAnnounced
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a rev…

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Fed interest-rate decision: October 27 to 28, 2026 FOMC meeting

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: federalreserve.govLow Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: No (66% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Announcement Is Enough

4.5¢ YES (-2.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 66% ask-heavy ($93.4k vs $48.4k) · Announcement settles it

1. Named primary resolution sourceFOMC post-meeting statement (Federal Reserve Board)
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneFOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026; Polymarket market page displays endDate 2026-10-29T03:59:00Z (11:59 PM ET Oct 28). [Ame…
3. Action triggerAnnounced
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackPolymarket: no statement by the end date of the next scheduled meeting → resolves "No change". Changes not shown in the options are rounded UP to the nearest 2…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapPolymarket measures the CHANGE in the UPPER BOUND vs. the pre-meeting level, with round-up-to-25 bps; Kalshi strikes may reference the target level/range direc…

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Fed interest-rate decision: December 8 to 9, 2026 FOMC meeting (with SEP)

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: federalreserve.govLow Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: No (65% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Announcement Is Enough

76.5¢ YES (+2.5 pp 24h) · Orderbook 65% ask-heavy ($132.1k vs $70.1k) · Announcement settles it

1. Named primary resolution sourceFOMC post-meeting statement (Federal Reserve Board)
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneFOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 (with Summary of Economic Projections; press conference at 2:30 PM ET). [America/New_Yor…
3. Action triggerAnnounced
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackPolymarket: no statement by the end date of the next scheduled meeting → "No change". Note the baseline is the level immediately prior to the December meeting,…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCommon trap: traders treat "Fed cuts in December" (change vs. pre-meeting level) and "Fed funds upper bound at or below X after December" (level) as the same c…

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U.S. CPI inflation: BLS Consumer Price Index release (12-month vs. MoM rules)

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: bls.govModerate Trap Risk (35/100)

Tape Lean: No Live BookRules Lean: First Print Controls (No Revisions)

No live price yet · First print controls

1. Named primary resolution sourceBLS Consumer Price Index news release (CPI-U)
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneReleased at 8:30 AM ET on the scheduled monthly BLS CPI release date (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerPreliminary Print
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf a CPI report is delayed by a federal funding lapse, Kalshi contracts wait for the official BLS publication up to the contract expiration date; Polymarket an…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapThree frequent traps: (1) YoY vs. MoM: Kalshi KXCPIYOY is 12-month unadjusted YoY, while many Polymarket monthly brackets track seasonally adjusted MoM; (2) St…

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Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall before 2027

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: nhc.noaa.govHigh Trap Risk (55/100)

Tape Lean: No Live BookRules Lean: Observed Event

No live price yet · Observed event

1. Named primary resolution sourceNOAA National Hurricane Center advisories
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneDecember 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (= January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC). Market page timeline shows Dec 31, 00:00 UTC. [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerObserved Event
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackPolymarket: initial qualifying advisory controls even if later retracted; post-season reanalysis only counts if it ADDS a qualifying event. Atlantic season off…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapTwo traps: (1) ET vs. UTC: the rules say 11:59 PM ET while the page timeline shows 00:00 UTC, a ~29-hour discrepancy; (2) advisory vs. post-season TCR: a storm…

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BLS Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls & U-3 Unemployment Rate

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: bls.govModerate Trap Risk (30/100)

Tape Lean: No Live BookRules Lean: First Print Controls (No Revisions)

No live price yet · First print controls

1. Named primary resolution sourceBLS Employment Situation news release
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneReleased at 8:30 AM ET on the first Friday of the month per the BLS schedule (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm). [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerPreliminary Print
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf a federal appropriations lapse delays the BLS Employment Situation release, settlement waits for the official BLS release up to the contract fallback cutoff…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapBracket-edge trap: "above 150k" (strict) vs. "150k or more" (inclusive), so a print of exactly 150k settles differently. Also verify both venues use the season…

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