October 2026 nonfarm payrolls (BLS Employment Situation)

.gov source: bls.gov · End date Nov 30, 6:59 PM ET

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: First Print Controls (No Revisions)Official Feed Active (BLS)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)

Preliminary Print

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Bureau of Labor Statistics. Latest BLS release: "Major Economic Indicators Latest Numbers" (5d ago).
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles strictly on the initial agency release. Later benchmark revisions will not flip the outcome. Cutoff: Released at 8:30 AM ET on the first Friday of the month per the BLS schedule (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm). Bracket-edge trap: "above 150k" (strict) vs. "150k or more" (inclusive), so a print of exactly 150k settles differently.

Latest Official Agency Releases (BLS)

Major Economic Indicators Latest Numbers5d ago

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

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BLS Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls & U-3 Unemployment Rate

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: bls.gov

Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Moderate 30

Named primary resolution source

BLS Employment Situation news release · https://www.bls.gov/ces/

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Released at 8:30 AM ET on the first Friday of the month per the BLS schedule (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm). America/New_York

Action trigger

Preliminary PrintFirst-print headline payroll change; the next two monthly revisions and the annual benchmark do not count.

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If a federal appropriations lapse delays the BLS Employment Situation release, settlement waits for the official BLS release up to the contract fallback cutoff (March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET on Polymarket annual U-3 contracts).

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Bracket-edge trap: "above 150k" (strict) vs. "150k or more" (inclusive), so a print of exactly 150k settles differently. Also verify both venues use the seasonally adjusted headline, not private payrolls or the household survey.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (BLS Employment Situation / US Unemployment in 2026, slug will-us-unemployment-reach-at-least-5pt0-in-2026): Resolves on the Monthly Employment Situation Report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm. Unemployment threshold markets use the seasonally adjusted U-3 rate in Table A-15 reported to one decimal place ("greater than or equal to" the listed percentage). Monthly payroll markets use the first-reported seasonally adjusted change in total nonfarm payroll employment (Establishment Survey, Table B-1), excluding subsequent monthly or annual benchmark revisions.

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXU3 and KXPAYROLLS CFTC-certified contracts): Source Agency is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Settles on the initial published Employment Situation release for the reference month (seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate or headline total nonfarm payroll change in thousands). Strikes are strict inequalities ("above X") unless otherwise specified on the strike ticket, and later two-month revisions or annual benchmark revisions do not alter settlement.