Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

.gov source: federalreserve.gov · End date Oct 28, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · View on Polymarket ↗

The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Announcement Is EnoughOfficial Feed Active (FED)

0.1¢ YES (n/a 24h) · Orderbook 57% ask-heavy ($4.1k vs $3.2k) · Announcement settles it

Market Implied Odds

<1% Yes

n/a 24h · $182.7k vol

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

57% ask

$3.2k bid / $4.1k ask · spread 0.1¢

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)

Announced

Market pricing & flow: Yes trades at <1% implied (n/a over 24h, +0.0 pp over 15m) on $182.7k of 24h volume. The ±5¢ book is stacked on the ask (No): $3.2k bid vs $4.1k ask.
Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. Latest FED release: "Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on August 17, September 9, and September 16, 2026" (11d ago).
Settlement edge / trap to watch: A qualifying official announcement settles YES; implementation is not required. Cutoff: Wed, Oct 28, 2026 (timezone not stated). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

Latest Official Agency Releases (FED)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depth

YES: 0.1¢
Δ15m pp: +0.0
Δ24h pp: -
Vol 24h: $182.7k
Spread: 0.1¢

Yes 0%No 100%

-Yes chance

±5¢ Bid Wall $3Kspread 0.1¢BalancedAsk Wall $4K

Recorded moves

Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 pp in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 14.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $3.2k bid / $4.1k ask.
1h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 pp in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 14.3× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $3.2k bid / $4.2k ask.
2h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 pp in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 14.3× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $3.2k bid / $4.2k ask.
2h ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Polymarket

.gov source: federalreserve.gov

Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Moderate 35

Named primary resolution source

Federal Reserve Board / FOMC · https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Wed, Oct 28, 2026 unspecified

Action trigger

AnnouncedAn official announcement is enough; implementation is not required. Rule text: "…25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 accordi…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.