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Resolution-rule trap cards

Autonomous 5-point settlement & signal audits for every tracked contract: named source, cutoff timestamp and timezone, action trigger, delay/cancellation/revision fallback, and where a same-name contract on another venue settles differently, plus the tape and rule lean. The venue’s live rules always control.

All Cards (316)High Trap Risk (score ≥ 50) (1)Cross-Venue Diffs (5)Official .gov Sources (6)
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Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall before 2027

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: nhc.noaa.govHigh Trap Risk (55/100)
Tape Lean: No Live BookRules Lean: Observed Event

No live price yet · Observed event

  1. 1. Named primary resolution sourceNOAA National Hurricane Center advisories
  2. 2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneDecember 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (= January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC). Market page timeline shows Dec 31, 00:00 UTC. [America/New_York]
  3. 3. Action triggerObserved Event
  4. 4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackPolymarket: initial qualifying advisory controls even if later retracted; post-season reanalysis only counts if it ADDS a qualifying event. Atlantic season off…
  5. 5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapTwo traps: (1) ET vs. UTC: the rules say 11:59 PM ET while the page timeline shows 00:00 UTC, a ~29-hour discrepancy; (2) advisory vs. post-season TCR: a storm…
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Resolution-Rule Cards · PolyTruth