Why did this market move?

Top Polymarket markets by 24h volume, attributed against the official source named in each contract. Refreshes every 60s.

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Top markets · livelast poll 3m ago · polling…

#	Market	YES / A	NO / B	Δ15m pp	Δ24h pp	Vol 24h	Spread	Depth ±5¢	Source
16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? polymarket ↗rule card Tape Lean: No (66% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Announcement Is Enough 4.5¢ YES (-2.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 66% ask-heavy ($93.4k vs $48.4k) · Announcement settles it	4.5¢	95.5¢	+0.0	-2.0	$509.2k	1.0¢	$48.4k/$93.4k	federalreserve.gov
21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? polymarket ↗rule card Tape Lean: Yes (58% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Announcement Is Enough 94.5¢ YES (+1.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 58% bid-heavy ($1.94M vs $1.39M) · Announcement settles it	94.5¢	5.5¢	+0.0	+1.0	$404.6k	1.0¢	$1.94M/$1.39M	federalreserve.gov
45	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? polymarket ↗rule card Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Announcement Is Enough 0.1¢ YES (n/a 24h) · Orderbook 57% ask-heavy ($4.1k vs $3.2k) · Announcement settles it	0.1¢	99.9¢	+0.0	-	$182.7k	0.1¢	$3.2k/$4.1k	federalreserve.gov

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Catalyst stream

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?29m ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 pp in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 14.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $3.2k bid / $4.1k ask.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?60m ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 pp in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 14.3× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $3.2k bid / $4.2k ask.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?2h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 pp in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 14.3× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $3.2k bid / $4.2k ask.

Attribution is mechanical: a release counts as “verified” only if the agency named in the contract published within the move window. It is not a statement about whether a price is right. Tape and rule leans describe public orderbook and contract data; they are not recommendations.

Official primary-source releases (latest ingested)BLS · Fed · SEC · NHC · Federal Register

nhc.noaa.govThere are no tropical cyclones at this time.-115965s ago
federalregister.govSelf-Regulatory Organizations; MIAX PEARL, LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of a Proposed Rule Change To Amend the MIAX Pearl Equities Fee Schedule-114806s ago
federalregister.govWyoming Regulatory Program-114806s ago
federalregister.govSunshine Act Meetings-114806s ago
federalregister.govSenior Executive Service (SES) Performance Review Board; Notice of Membership-114806s ago
federalregister.govSubmission for OMB Review; Comment Request-114806s ago
federalregister.govEnhancing the Ability of Consumers To Control the Robocalls-114806s ago
federalregister.govModernizing the Ability of Consumers To Control Robocalls-114806s ago
federalregister.govCertain Small Vertical Shaft Engines Between 99cc and up to 225cc, and Parts Thereof From the People's Republic of China: Continuation of Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Orders-114806s ago
federalregister.govSpace Modernization for the 21st Century-114806s ago
federalregister.govEstablishment of Class E Airspace; Canton, IL-114806s ago
federalregister.govCenter for Scientific Review; Notice of Closed Meetings-114806s ago