PolyTruthPolyTruth
Log inSign up

Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall before 2027

.gov source: nhc.noaa.gov

The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: No Live BookRules Lean: Observed EventOfficial Feed Active (NHC)

No live price yet · Observed event

Market Implied Odds
-
no live price
Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)
-
no orderbook read
Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk
High Trap Risk (55/100)
Observed Event
  • Market pricing & flow: no live Polymarket price or orderbook is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on NOAA National Hurricane Center. Latest NHC release: "There are no tropical cyclones at this time." (-115818s ago).
  • Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on a "Observed Event" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (= January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC). Market page timeline shows Dec 31, 00:00 UTC. Cutoff: December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (= January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC). Two traps: (1) ET vs. UTC: the rules say 11:59 PM ET while the page timeline shows 00:00 UTC, a ~29-hour discrepancy.

Latest Official Agency Releases (NHC)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall before 2027

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: nhc.noaa.gov
High Trap Risk (55/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk High 55
1.
Named primary resolution source
NOAA National Hurricane Center advisories · https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (= January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC). Market page timeline shows Dec 31, 00:00 UTC. America/New_York
3.
Action trigger
Observed EventLandfall at Category 5 intensity as reported in an NHC advisory.
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
Polymarket: initial qualifying advisory controls even if later retracted; post-season reanalysis only counts if it ADDS a qualifying event. Atlantic season officially ends Nov 30 but the window runs to Dec 31.
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Two traps: (1) ET vs. UTC: the rules say 11:59 PM ET while the page timeline shows 00:00 UTC, a ~29-hour discrepancy; (2) advisory vs. post-season TCR: a storm can be upgraded or downgraded in reanalysis, so a venue using the TCR can settle differently from one that uses the initial advisory.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (slug will-any-category-5-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027): Category 5 is defined as maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher per NHC Saffir-Simpson definitions (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and landfall occurs when the surface center intersects the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL). Resolves Yes if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane as reported in official NHC advisories between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolves based on the initial qualifying NHC advisory regardless of any later retraction or post-season downgrade, while later corrections are counted only if they upgrade a storm into a qualifying Category 5 landfall.

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXHURRICANE / hurricane landfall contracts): Source Agency is the NOAA National Hurricane Center. Kalshi contracts specify geographic coastline bounds (including or excluding U.S. territories such as Puerto Rico depending on the series) and settle on official NHC reports published prior to contract expiration, without Polymarket’s asymmetric "initial advisory locks in Yes, post-season upgrade also counts for Yes" rule.

Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall before 2027: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth