Resolution-rule trap cards

Autonomous 5-point settlement & signal audits for every tracked contract: named source, cutoff timestamp and timezone, action trigger, delay/cancellation/revision fallback, and where a same-name contract on another venue settles differently, plus the tape and rule lean. The venue’s live rules always control.

All Cards (267)High Trap Risk (score ≥ 50) (1)Cross-Venue Diffs (5)Official .gov Sources (6)

Showing 1–24 of 267 cards

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Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Moderate Trap Risk (40/100)

Tape Lean: No (64% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Favors YES Touch

3.1¢ YES (-0.1 pp 24h) · Orderbook 64% ask-heavy ($1.9k vs $1.1k) · One 1m wick settles YES

1. Named primary resolution sourceBinance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
3. Action trigger1m Candle High/Low Touch
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackNo fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle)). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. K…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Moderate Trap Risk (40/100)

Tape Lean: No (73% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Favors YES Touch

1.6¢ YES (-0.1 pp 24h) · Orderbook 73% ask-heavy ($2.0k vs $755) · One 1m wick settles YES

1. Named primary resolution sourceBinance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
3. Action trigger1m Candle High/Low Touch
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackNo fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle)). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. K…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Polymarket

.gov source: federalreserve.govModerate Trap Risk (35/100)

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Announcement Is Enough

0.1¢ YES (n/a 24h) · Orderbook 57% ask-heavy ($4.1k vs $3.2k) · Announcement settles it

1. Named primary resolution sourceFederal Reserve Board / FOMC
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneWed, Oct 28, 2026 [unspecified]
3. Action triggerAnnounced
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a rev…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)

Tape Lean: No (62% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Favors YES Touch

31.5¢ YES (+2.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 62% ask-heavy ($7.7k vs $4.6k) · One 1m wick settles YES

1. Named primary resolution sourceBinance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
3. Action trigger1m Candle High/Low Touch
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackNo fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensusModerate Trap Risk (30/100)

Tape Lean: Yes (100% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Stated Condition

100¢ YES (n/a 24h) · Orderbook 100% bid-heavy ($1.62M vs $0) · Stated condition

1. Named primary resolution sourceOfficial government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerStated Condition
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackNo fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposa…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymark…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensusModerate Trap Risk (30/100)

Tape Lean: Yes (76% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Announcement Is Enough

3.3¢ YES (+0.6 pp 24h) · Orderbook 76% bid-heavy ($38.0k vs $12.3k) · Announcement settles it

1. Named primary resolution sourceConsensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneThu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerAnnounced
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackNo fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposa…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymark…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensusModerate Trap Risk (30/100)

Tape Lean: Yes (83% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Stated Condition

19¢ YES (+1.5 pp 24h) · Orderbook 83% bid-heavy ($95.4k vs $19.3k) · Stated condition

1. Named primary resolution sourceOfficial government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneThu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerStated Condition
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackNo fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated confirmation window for disputed reports; conflicting official statements are settl…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold o…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensusModerate Trap Risk (30/100)

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Announcement Is Enough

2.5¢ YES (+0.1 pp 24h) · Orderbook 55% bid-heavy ($2.9k vs $2.4k) · Announcement settles it

1. Named primary resolution sourceOfficial government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneThu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerAnnounced
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackNo fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposa…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymark…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensusModerate Trap Risk (30/100)

Tape Lean: Yes (82% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Stated Condition

4.5¢ YES (-0.2 pp 24h) · Orderbook 82% bid-heavy ($82.3k vs $17.7k) · Stated condition

1. Named primary resolution sourceOfficial government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneThu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerStated Condition
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackNo fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposa…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymark…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensusModerate Trap Risk (30/100)

Tape Lean: Yes (78% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Stated Condition

2.3¢ YES (-0.1 pp 24h) · Orderbook 78% bid-heavy ($31.1k vs $8.7k) · Stated condition

1. Named primary resolution sourceOfficial government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneThu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerStated Condition
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackNo fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated confirmation window for disputed reports; conflicting official statements are settl…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold o…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensusModerate Trap Risk (30/100)

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Announcement Is Enough

5.3¢ YES (-14.2 pp 24h) · thin ±5¢ book · Announcement settles it

1. Named primary resolution sourceOfficial government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerAnnounced
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackNo fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposa…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymark…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensusModerate Trap Risk (30/100)

Tape Lean: Yes (89% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Announcement Is Enough

14.5¢ YES (-1.5 pp 24h) · Orderbook 89% bid-heavy ($4.4k vs $539) · Announcement settles it

1. Named primary resolution sourceConsensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneThu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerAnnounced
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackNo fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposa…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymark…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsLow Trap Risk (25/100)

Tape Lean: No (75% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Seat / Electoral Certification

72¢ YES (+0.5 pp 24h) · Orderbook 75% ask-heavy ($189.9k vs $64.3k) · Seat / electoral certification

1. Named primary resolution sourceRace calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerSeat / Electoral Certification
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackNo fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsLow Trap Risk (25/100)

Tape Lean: Yes (80% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Seat / Electoral Certification

28.5¢ YES (-0.5 pp 24h) · Orderbook 80% bid-heavy ($164.1k vs $40.6k) · Seat / electoral certification

1. Named primary resolution sourceRace calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerSeat / Electoral Certification
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackNo fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsLow Trap Risk (25/100)

Tape Lean: Yes (62% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Seat / Electoral Certification

62.5¢ YES (-2.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 62% bid-heavy ($188.8k vs $114.1k) · Seat / electoral certification

1. Named primary resolution sourceRace calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerSeat / Electoral Certification
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackNo fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 19-25?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Low Trap Risk (25/100)

Tape Lean: No (83% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Favors YES Touch

34¢ YES (+0.5 pp 24h) · Orderbook 83% ask-heavy ($944 vs $195) · One 1m wick settles YES

1. Named primary resolution sourceBinance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneWindow ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline, date from market title) [America/New_York]
3. Action trigger1m Candle High/Low Touch
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackNo fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsLow Trap Risk (25/100)

Tape Lean: No (71% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Seat / Electoral Certification

82¢ YES (-0.5 pp 24h) · Orderbook 71% ask-heavy ($90.4k vs $37.5k) · Seat / electoral certification

1. Named primary resolution sourceRace calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerSeat / Electoral Certification
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackNo fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Wizards vs. Bulls

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

100¢ Wizards (+48.4 pp 24h) · thin ±5¢ book · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 8:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Ole Miss vs. Texas

Polymarket

Named source: NCAA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Texas (77% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

22.5¢ Ole Miss (-19.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 77% ask-heavy ($57.4k vs $16.9k) · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NCAA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the gam…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Spread: 76ers (-12.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Bucks (100% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

0.1¢ 76ers (n/a 24h) · Orderbook 100% ask-heavy ($713 vs $0) · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Bucks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If th…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Rockets vs. Hawks

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Rockets (92% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

99.8¢ Rockets (+53.8 pp 24h) · Orderbook 92% bid-heavy ($62.4k vs $5.1k) · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 8:30 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Bucks vs. 76ers

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: 76ers (100% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

0.1¢ Bucks (-15.4 pp 24h) · Orderbook 100% ask-heavy ($675 vs $0) · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Pelicans vs. Nuggets

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Nuggets (75% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

85.5¢ Pelicans (+67.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 75% ask-heavy ($23.1k vs $7.6k) · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 9:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

1.4¢ Nuggets (-48.1 pp 24h) · thin ±5¢ book · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 9:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

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Resolution-Rule Cards · PolyTruth