Fed decision in October 2026 (FOMC Oct 27–28)?

.gov source: federalreserve.gov · End date Oct 28, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · View on Polymarket ↗

The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: No (66% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Announcement Is EnoughOfficial Feed Active (FED)

4.5¢ YES (-2.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 66% ask-heavy ($93.4k vs $48.4k) · Announcement settles it

Market Implied Odds

5% Yes

-2.0 pp 24h · $509.2k vol

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

66% ask

$48.4k bid / $93.4k ask · spread 1.0¢

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Announced

Market pricing & flow: Yes trades at 5% implied (-2.0 pp over 24h, +0.0 pp over 15m) on $509.2k of 24h volume. The ±5¢ book is stacked on the ask (No): $48.4k bid vs $93.4k ask.
Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. Latest FED release: "Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on August 17, September 9, and September 16, 2026" (11d ago).
Settlement edge / trap to watch: A qualifying official announcement settles YES; implementation is not required. Cutoff: FOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Polymarket measures the CHANGE in the UPPER BOUND vs. the pre-meeting level, with round-up-to-25 bps.

Latest Official Agency Releases (FED)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depth

YES: 4.5¢
Δ15m pp: +0.0
Δ24h pp: -2.0
Vol 24h: $509.2k
Spread: 1.0¢

Yes 5%No 96%

-Yes chance

±5¢ Bid Wall $48Kspread 1.0¢Ask-heavyAsk Wall $93K

Recorded moves

No moves recorded.

Fed interest-rate decision: October 27 to 28, 2026 FOMC meeting

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: federalreserve.gov

Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 20

Named primary resolution source

FOMC post-meeting statement (Federal Reserve Board) · https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

FOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026; Polymarket market page displays endDate 2026-10-29T03:59:00Z (11:59 PM ET Oct 28). America/New_York

Action trigger

AnnouncedFOMC statement release (not the press conference, minutes, or effective date of the new range).

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

Polymarket: no statement by the end date of the next scheduled meeting → resolves "No change". Changes not shown in the options are rounded UP to the nearest 25 bps. Inter-meeting (unscheduled) moves before Oct 27 change the "prior to the meeting" baseline.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Polymarket measures the CHANGE in the UPPER BOUND vs. the pre-meeting level, with round-up-to-25 bps; Kalshi strikes may reference the target level/range directly. A 12.5 bp or inter-meeting move can settle the two venues differently. Polymarket disputes go to UMA token-holder voting; Kalshi settles under its CFTC-certified contract terms.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (Fed Decision in October, event fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537): The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. This market resolves to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change is rounded up to the nearest 25 and resolves to the relevant bracket (for example, a cut or increase of 12.5 bps is considered 25 bps). Resolution source: the FOMC statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) and https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market resolves to the "No change" bracket.

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXFEDDECISION / KXFED CFTC-certified contracts): Source Agency is the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Settles on the target federal funds rate upper bound (or specified basis-point change bracket) stated in the FOMC post-meeting implementation note and statement for the October 2026 meeting. Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi strikes settle on exact CFTC-certified numerical thresholds without rounding a 12.5 bps move up to 25 bps, and disputes are governed by Kalshi Exchange Rules rather than UMA token-holder voting.