U.S. CPI inflation: BLS Consumer Price Index release (12-month vs. MoM rules)

.gov source: bls.gov

The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: No Live BookRules Lean: First Print Controls (No Revisions)Official Feed Active (BLS)

No live price yet · First print controls

Market Implied Odds

no live price

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

no orderbook read

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)

Preliminary Print

Market pricing & flow: no live Polymarket price or orderbook is tracked for this contract yet.
Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Bureau of Labor Statistics. Latest BLS release: "Major Economic Indicators Latest Numbers" (5d ago).
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles strictly on the initial agency release. Later benchmark revisions will not flip the outcome. Cutoff: Released at 8:30 AM ET on the scheduled monthly BLS CPI release date (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Three frequent traps: (1) YoY vs. MoM: Kalshi KXCPIYOY is 12-month unadjusted YoY, while many Polymarket monthly brackets track seasonally adjusted MoM.

Latest Official Agency Releases (BLS)

Major Economic Indicators Latest Numbers5d ago

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

U.S. CPI inflation: BLS Consumer Price Index release (12-month vs. MoM rules)

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: bls.gov

Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Moderate 35

Named primary resolution source

BLS Consumer Price Index news release (CPI-U) · https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Released at 8:30 AM ET on the scheduled monthly BLS CPI release date (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). America/New_York

Action trigger

Preliminary PrintInitial monthly BLS CPI news release (first print at one decimal place); subsequent revisions are excluded on both venues.

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If a CPI report is delayed by a federal funding lapse, Kalshi contracts wait for the official BLS publication up to the contract expiration date; Polymarket annual CPI contracts wait until January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET before resolving on already-published data.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Three frequent traps: (1) YoY vs. MoM: Kalshi KXCPIYOY is 12-month unadjusted YoY, while many Polymarket monthly brackets track seasonally adjusted MoM; (2) Strict inequality: Kalshi "> X%" requires at least X + 0.1% at one-decimal precision, whereas Polymarket range brackets include both endpoints; (3) Headline CPI-U vs. Core CPI (less food and energy).

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (U.S. CPI / How high will inflation get in 2026, slug will-inflation-reach-more-than-4pt5-in-2026): Annual threshold markets resolve Yes if headline Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) increases by strictly greater than the listed percent over the 12-month period ending with any month in 2026 per the monthly BLS CPI news release (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), reported to one decimal place (for example, 2.9%). Monthly Polymarket CPI bracket markets key off the seasonally adjusted month-over-month (MoM) or unadjusted year-over-year (YoY) first print as specified in the bracket title. Later revisions to previously released CPI figures do not count once the report is issued.

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXCPI / KXCPIYOY CFTC-certified contracts): Source Agency is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. KXCPIYOY settles on the initial published 12-month percent change in Not Seasonally Adjusted CPI-U (All Urban Consumers, U.S. city average, all items) to one decimal place. Strikes use "strictly greater than" thresholds, meaning a print of exactly 3.0% settles NO on a "> 3.0%" strike. Subsequent BLS revisions or seasonal-factor recalculations are excluded.