Resolution-rule trap cards

Autonomous 5-point settlement & signal audits for every tracked contract: named source, cutoff timestamp and timezone, action trigger, delay/cancellation/revision fallback, and where a same-name contract on another venue settles differently, plus the tape and rule lean. The venue’s live rules always control.

All Cards (863)High Trap Risk (score ≥ 50) (2)Cross-Venue Diffs (5)Official .gov Sources (17)

Showing 169 to 192 of 863 cards

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Fed interest-rate decision: October 27 to 28, 2026 FOMC meeting

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: federalreserve.govLow Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: No (66% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Announcement Is Enough

4.5¢ YES (-2.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 66% ask-heavy ($93.4k vs $48.4k) · Announcement settles it

1. Named primary resolution sourceFOMC post-meeting statement (Federal Reserve Board)
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneFOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026; Polymarket market page displays endDate 2026-10-29T03:59:00Z (11:59 PM ET Oct 28). [Ame…
3. Action triggerAnnounced
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackPolymarket: no statement by the end date of the next scheduled meeting → resolves "No change". Changes not shown in the options are rounded UP to the nearest 2…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapPolymarket measures the CHANGE in the UPPER BOUND vs. the pre-meeting level, with round-up-to-25 bps; Kalshi strikes may reference the target level/range direc…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Syracuse vs. North Carolina

Polymarket

Named source: NCAA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Syracuse (100% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

100¢ Syracuse (+74.5 pp 24h) · Orderbook 100% bid-heavy ($153.9k vs $0) · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NCAA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the gam…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

San Diego State vs. Colorado State

Polymarket

Named source: NCAA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

0.1¢ San Diego State (-51.4 pp 24h) · thin ±5¢ book · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NCAA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 6:30 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the gam…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?

Polymarket

Named source: La Liga officialLow Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Yes (59% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Regulation 90m Only · Draws Settle NO

26.5¢ YES (+2.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 59% bid-heavy ($106.3k vs $74.2k) · Regulation 90m only

1. Named primary resolution sourceLa Liga official results; backups: Flashscore, Sofascore; credible reporting as a last resort
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSun, Oct 25, 2026 (scheduled start; start time not in rules, venue lists 4:00 PM ET) [unspecified]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this contract counts the first 90 minutes plus stoppage only), the postponem…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-10-24?

Polymarket

Named source: MLS officialLow Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Yes (100% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Regulation 90m Only · Draws Settle NO

100¢ YES (+56.5 pp 24h) · Orderbook 100% bid-heavy ($320.7k vs $0) · Regulation 90m only

1. Named primary resolution sourceMLS official results; backups: Flashscore, Sofascore; credible reporting as a last resort
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026 (scheduled start; start time not in rules, venue lists 9:30 PM ET) [unspecified]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this contract counts the first 90 minutes plus stoppage only), the postponem…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Nets vs. Cavaliers

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

0.1¢ Nets (-18.4 pp 24h) · thin ±5¢ book · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-25?

Polymarket

Named source: Premier League officialLow Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Yes (63% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Regulation 90m Only · Draws Settle NO

58.5¢ YES (+1.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 63% bid-heavy ($271.6k vs $160.0k) · Regulation 90m only

1. Named primary resolution sourcePremier League official results; backups: Flashscore, Sofascore; credible reporting as a last resort
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSun, Oct 25, 2026 (scheduled start; start time not in rules, venue lists 10:00 AM ET) [unspecified]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this contract counts the first 90 minutes plus stoppage only), the postponem…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Steelers vs. Saints: O/U 44.5

Polymarket

Named source: NFL official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Under (89% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

43.5¢ Over (-7.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 89% ask-heavy ($375.9k vs $48.0k) · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NFL final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

0.1¢ Cavaliers (-46.5 pp 24h) · thin ±5¢ book · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Nets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

San Jose State vs. Nevada

Polymarket

Named source: NCAA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

0.1¢ San Jose State (-30.4 pp 24h) · thin ±5¢ book · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NCAA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 5:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the gam…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Houston vs. Utah: O/U 57.5

Polymarket

Named source: NCAA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

0.1¢ Over (-49.5 pp 24h) · thin ±5¢ book · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NCAA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will EC Bahia win on 2026-10-24?

Polymarket

Named source: Official league statsLow Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: No (100% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Regulation 90m Only · Draws Settle NO

0.1¢ YES (-24.4 pp 24h) · Orderbook 100% ask-heavy ($532 vs $0) · Regulation 90m only

1. Named primary resolution sourceOfficial statistics of the governing body / event organizer; backups: Flashscore, Sofascore; credible reporting as a last resort
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026 (scheduled start; start time not in rules, venue lists 9:00 PM ET) [unspecified]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this contract counts the first 90 minutes plus stoppage only), the postponem…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Spread: Spurs (-12.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Spurs (100% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

100¢ Spurs (+56.5 pp 24h) · Orderbook 100% bid-heavy ($314.7k vs $0) · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 8:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Mavericks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. I…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-10-24?

Polymarket

Named source: MLS officialLow Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Regulation 90m Only · Draws Settle NO

0.1¢ YES (-65.5 pp 24h) · thin ±5¢ book · Regulation 90m only

1. Named primary resolution sourceMLS official results; backups: Flashscore, Sofascore; credible reporting as a last resort
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026 (scheduled start; start time not in rules, venue lists 7:30 PM ET) [unspecified]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this contract counts the first 90 minutes plus stoppage only), the postponem…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Spread: Spurs (-14.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Spurs (100% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

100¢ Spurs (+59.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 100% bid-heavy ($283.6k vs $0) · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 8:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Mavericks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. I…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Over (100% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

100¢ Over (+44.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 100% bid-heavy ($373.2k vs $0) · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 8:30 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Spread: Oklahoma State (-13.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NCAA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Oklahoma State (100% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

100¢ Oklahoma State (+50.4 pp 24h) · Orderbook 100% bid-heavy ($273.6k vs $0) · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NCAA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

North Dakota State vs. New Mexico

Polymarket

Named source: NCAA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

0.1¢ North Dakota State (-36.4 pp 24h) · thin ±5¢ book · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NCAA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 10:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the gam…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Nets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Over (100% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

100¢ Over (+29.4 pp 24h) · Orderbook 100% bid-heavy ($254.5k vs $0) · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Bengals vs. Ravens

Polymarket

Named source: NFL official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

58.5¢ Bengals (+6.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 53% ask-heavy ($474.8k vs $422.8k) · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NFL final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the gam…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensusLow Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: No (69% Ask Depth)Rules Lean: Stated Condition

28.5¢ YES (+2.0 pp 24h) · Orderbook 69% ask-heavy ($143.9k vs $65.4k) · Stated condition

1. Named primary resolution sourceOfficial government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneTue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerStated Condition
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Spread: Utah (-6.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NCAA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Utah (100% Bid Depth)Rules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

100¢ Utah (+47.4 pp 24h) · Orderbook 100% bid-heavy ($206.8k vs $0) · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NCAA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

Sharks vs. Bruins

Polymarket

Named source: NHL official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

0.1¢ Sharks (-37.5 pp 24h) · thin ±5¢ book · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NHL final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

USC vs. Wisconsin

Polymarket

Named source: NCAA official (implied)Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Tape Lean: Balanced Two-Sided BookRules Lean: Full Game Including Overtime

0.1¢ USC (-57.0 pp 24h) · thin ±5¢ book · Full game incl. overtime

1. Named primary resolution sourceThe rules name no source; the official NCAA final result is the implied reference
2. Cutoff date, time & timezoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
3. Action triggerMatch / Game Final
4. Delay / cancellation / revision fallbackIf the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the gam…
5. Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trapCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…

Full 5-point card & signal →

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Resolution-Rule Cards · PolyTruth