Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus · End date Oct 27, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Stated ConditionConsensus Source (No Single Feed)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Stated Condition

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed); has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) Cutoff: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus

Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 20

Named primary resolution source

Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) America/New_York

Action trigger

Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election."

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.