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Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Source: Credible-reporting consensus · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · View on Polymarket ↗

The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Announcement Is EnoughConsensus Source (No Single Feed)
Market Implied Odds
Pro
live price on Pro
Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)
Pro
depth read on Pro
Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk
Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)
Announced
  • Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider); has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Settlement edge / trap to watch: A qualifying official announcement settles YES; implementation is not required. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

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Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensus
Moderate Trap Risk (30/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk Moderate 30
1.
Named primary resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider) · https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) America/New_York
3.
Action trigger
AnnouncedA qualifying official announcement is enough. Rule text: "…o "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Pri…"
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth