PolyTruthWill Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 19-25?
Polymarket
Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Low Trap Risk (25/100)
- Source
- Cutoff TZ
- Trigger
- Fallback
- Cross-Venue
Trap risk Low 25
1.
Named primary resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored · https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
Window ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline, date from market title) America/New_York
3.
Action trigger
1m Candle High/Low TouchResolves the moment a single 1-minute candle on Binance BTC/USDT prints a High/Low at or beyond the level, even a brief wick. Prices on other exchanges, pairs or indexes do not count, and it can settle before the end date. Rule text: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the date range specified in the title has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the t…"
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is down, or prints an outlier wick, there is no stated backup index and the outcome goes to UMA dispute.
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. KXBTC / KXBTCD) settle on a CF Benchmarks index such as the Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), averaged over the 60 seconds before the stated time across multiple spot exchanges. A brief binance.com USDT wick can settle Polymarket YES while Kalshi settles NO.