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Resolution-rule trap cards

A 5-point rule check for every tracked contract: who settles it, the deadline and time zone, what counts as Yes, backup rules, and where a same-name contract on another venue settles differently, plus buyers vs sellers near the price. The venue’s live rules always control.

All Cards (1000)High fine-print risk (score 50+) (2)Cross-Venue Diffs (5)Official .gov Sources (17)
Showing 553 to 576 of 1000 cards
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Sabres vs. Capitals

Polymarket

Named source: NHL official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Sabres less than 1% and Capitals more than 99% in “Sabres vs. Capitals”. It fell 46 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NHL final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Spread: Utah (-7.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NCAA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (100%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Utah more than 99% and Houston less than 1% in “Spread: Utah (-7.5)”. It rose 55 points today, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NCAA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Wizards vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (100%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Over more than 99% and Under less than 1% in “Wizards vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5”. It rose 39 points today, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 8:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw?

Polymarket

Named source: Official league statsFine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: 90 minutes only, a draw settles No
The short version:Traders put the chance of Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior ending in a draw at less than 1%. It fell 26 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official result after 90 minutes settles it, and extra time does not count.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Official statistics of the governing body / event organizer; backups: Flashscore, Sofascore; credible reporting as a last resort
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026 (scheduled start; start time not in rules, venue lists 7:15 AM ET) [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this contract counts the first 90 minutes plus stoppage only), the postponem…
Full 5-point rule check →
Spread: Broncos (-5.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NFL official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: About even (51% buyers)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Broncos about 33% and Cardinals about 68% in “Spread: Broncos (-5.5)”. It fell 15 points today, and buyers and sellers near the price are about even, so neither side dominates the order book. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NFL final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 4:05 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensusFine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (74%)Rule note: stated condition
The short version:Traders put the chance of Yossi Cohen being the next Prime Minister of Israel at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sellers than buyers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a lower price. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesStated Condition
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
FC Barcelona leading at halftime?

Polymarket

Named source: La Liga officialFine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: 90 minutes only, a draw settles No
The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “FC Barcelona leading at halftime”. It fell 47 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official result after 90 minutes settles it, and extra time does not count.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)La Liga official results; backups: Flashscore, Sofascore; credible reporting as a last resort
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026 (scheduled start; start time not in rules, venue lists 4:00 PM ET) [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Over less than 1% and Under more than 99% in “Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 6:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…
Full 5-point rule check →
Spread: Panthers (-3.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NFL official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (100%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Panthers less than 1% and Buccaneers more than 99% in “Spread: Panthers (-3.5)”. It fell 41 points today, and there are more sellers than buyers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a lower price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NFL final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Wizards vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (100%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Over more than 99% and Under less than 1% in “Wizards vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5”. It rose 42 points today, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 8:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…
Full 5-point rule check →
Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (100%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Over more than 99% and Under less than 1% in “Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5”. It rose 46 points today, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 8:30 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…
Full 5-point rule check →
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 224.5

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (100%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Over more than 99% and Under less than 1% in “Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 224.5”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 6:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…
Full 5-point rule check →
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky: O/U 51.5

Polymarket

Named source: NCAA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Over less than 1% and Under more than 99% in “Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky: O/U 51.5”. It fell 51 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NCAA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…
Full 5-point rule check →
Spread: North Carolina (-8.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NCAA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give North Carolina less than 1% and Syracuse more than 99% in “Spread: North Carolina (-8.5)”. It fell 51 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NCAA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Spread: 49ers (-20.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NFL official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (99%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give 49ers less than 1% and Falcons more than 99% in “Spread: 49ers (-20.5)”. It fell 6 points today, and there are more sellers than buyers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a lower price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NFL final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-10-25?

Polymarket

Named source: Official league statsFine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: 90 minutes only, a draw settles No
The short version:Traders put the chance of FC Lorient winning on 2026-10-25 at less than 1%. It fell 38 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official result after 90 minutes settles it, and extra time does not count.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Official statistics of the governing body / event organizer; backups: Flashscore, Sofascore; credible reporting as a last resort
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026 (scheduled start; start time not in rules, venue lists 12:15 PM ET) [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this contract counts the first 90 minutes plus stoppage only), the postponem…
Full 5-point rule check →
Spread: Hornets (-1.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (100%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Hornets more than 99% and Heat less than 1% in “Spread: Hornets (-1.5)”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 6:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Heat". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?

Polymarket

Named source: Bundesliga officialFine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: 90 minutes only, a draw settles No
The short version:Traders put the chance of TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen ending in a draw at less than 1%. It fell 24 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official result after 90 minutes settles it, and extra time does not count.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Bundesliga official results; backups: Flashscore, Sofascore; credible reporting as a last resort
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026 (scheduled start; start time not in rules, venue lists 10:30 AM ET) [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this contract counts the first 90 minutes plus stoppage only), the postponem…
Full 5-point rule check →
Spread: Hornets (-2.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (100%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Hornets more than 99% and Heat less than 1% in “Spread: Hornets (-2.5)”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 6:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Heat". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?

Polymarket

Named source: Election CommissionFine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (85%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification, time zone not stated
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republican Party winning the NC-13 House seat at about 64%. It fell 14 points today, and there are more sellers than buyers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a lower price. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Official election authority (Election Commission)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls) [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Elec…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with Election Commission deciding if ambiguous; certified off…
Full 5-point rule check →
Spread: Suns (-6.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (100%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Suns more than 99% and Warriors less than 1% in “Spread: Suns (-6.5)”. It rose 48 points today, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 10:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Warriors". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Polymarket

No source named in rulesFine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of Lewis Hamilton being the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)No resolution source named in the rules
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneWed, Mar 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymark…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?

Polymarket

Named source: Election CommissionFine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: About even (52% buyers)Rule note: seat / electoral certification, time zone not stated
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democratic Party winning the NJ-02 House seat at about 20%. It rose 1 point today, and buyers and sellers near the price are about even, so neither side dominates the order book. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Official election authority (Election Commission)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls) [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Elec…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with Election Commission deciding if ambiguous; certified off…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD end in a draw?

Polymarket

Named source: La Liga officialFine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: 90 minutes only, a draw settles No
The short version:Traders put the chance of Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD ending in a draw at less than 1%. It fell 21 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official result after 90 minutes settles it, and extra time does not count.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)La Liga official results; backups: Flashscore, Sofascore; credible reporting as a last resort
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026 (scheduled start; start time not in rules, venue lists 1:30 PM ET) [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this contract counts the first 90 minutes plus stoppage only), the postponem…
Full 5-point rule check →
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Resolution-Rule Cards · PolyTruth