PolyTruthHow to read PolyTruth
Each market page explains one prediction market in plain words, then shows the detail traders use. The examples below come from the October 2026 Fed decision page. Everything describes the data; nothing here tells you what to do.
The short version
Two or three plain sentences at the top of every market. For the Fed market it reads like: “Traders put the chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike after the October 2026 meeting at about 6%. It dipped 2 points today… Low surprise risk: the Fed’s 2:00 PM ET announcement on Oct 28 settles it.”
Chance the crowd gives Yes
Prices run from 0¢ to 100¢ and work like percentages: a 6¢ Yes price means traders together give Yes about a 6% chance. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a fact or a forecast from us.
Points
A point is one cent of price, which is one percentage point of chance. If the hike market goes from 8% to 6%, it fell 2 points.
Buyers vs sellers near the price
Compares the money waiting from buyers and from sellers within 5¢ of the current price, for example “More sellers (66%)”. It shows where the order book is weighted right now; it can change in minutes.
Rule note
The one detail of the contract that most decides how it settles. For the Fed market: “Rule note: the announcement counts”, meaning the 2:00 PM FOMC statement settles it, not the press conference or later news.
Fine-print risk
Low, Medium or High, from 0 to 100: how likely the wording (deadline, time zone, source, backup rules) could settle it differently from what the headline suggests. The Fed market is Low because it names one source and one time.
5-point rule check
Five checks on the rules: who settles it, the deadline and time zone, what counts as Yes, backup rules for delays or revisions, and how the same question settles on another venue such as Kalshi.
Official source and next official event
Only releases about the market’s topic are listed (for a rate decision: FOMC statements, projections and press conferences). If none is recent, we show the next scheduled one, such as “Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET”.
Venue line
Prices here come from Polymarket’s international site, which is not available to US residents; Polymarket US and Kalshi have their own prices. Access depends on where you live.
Free and Pro
Everyone sees the short version, the rule note and the fine-print risk on every market. Pro adds the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move.
Open the Fed market page to see each section live.