PolyTruthPolyTruth

Resolution-rule trap cards

A 5-point rule check for every tracked contract: who settles it, the deadline and time zone, what counts as Yes, backup rules, and where a same-name contract on another venue settles differently, plus buyers vs sellers near the price. The venue’s live rules always control.

Showing 721 to 744 of 1000 cards
Browns vs. Titans: O/U 38.5

Polymarket

Named source: NFL official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (100%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Over more than 99% and Under less than 1% in “Browns vs. Titans: O/U 38.5”. It rose 55 points today, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NFL final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-27?

Polymarket

Named source: Serie A officialFine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: 90 minutes only, a draw settles No
The short version:Traders put the chance of AS Roma winning on 2026-10-27 at about 73%. It dipped 0.5 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official result after 90 minutes settles it, and extra time does not count.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Serie A official results; backups: Flashscore, Sofascore; credible reporting as a last resort
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Oct 27, 2026 (scheduled start; start time not in rules, venue lists 3:45 PM ET) [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this contract counts the first 90 minutes plus stoppage only), the postponem…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: Pyth 1m candle · ICE futuresFine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (88%)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hitting (HIGH) $110 in October at about 11%. It fell 21 points today, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price. Low surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Pyth 1-minute candles for the ICE Futures active-month contract (ice.com trading hours apply) (pyth.network)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle d…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket reads Pyth 1m candle · ICE futures intraday prints for the active-month contract, so one 1-minute wick can…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-10-24?

Polymarket

Named source: Official league statsFine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: 90 minutes only, a draw settles No
The short version:Traders put the chance of Fortaleza EC winning on 2026-10-24 at less than 1%. It fell 77 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official result after 90 minutes settles it, and extra time does not count.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Official statistics of the governing body / event organizer; backups: Flashscore, Sofascore; credible reporting as a last resort
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026 (scheduled start; start time not in rules, venue lists 5:30 PM ET) [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this contract counts the first 90 minutes plus stoppage only), the postponem…
Full 5-point rule check →
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Thunder less than 1% and Clippers more than 99% in “Spread: Thunder (-14.5)”. It fell 50 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 7:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Clippers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Spread: Wizards (-1.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (100%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Wizards more than 99% and Bulls less than 1% in “Spread: Wizards (-1.5)”. It rose 50 points today, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 8:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Bulls". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If th…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (100%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Over more than 99% and Under less than 1% in “Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5”. It rose 50 points today, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 5:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-10-24?

Polymarket

Named source: MLS officialFine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: 90 minutes only, a draw settles No
The short version:Traders put the chance of Orlando City SC winning on 2026-10-24 at less than 1%. It fell 45 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official result after 90 minutes settles it, and extra time does not count.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)MLS official results; backups: Flashscore, Sofascore; credible reporting as a last resort
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026 (scheduled start; start time not in rules, venue lists 7:30 PM ET) [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this contract counts the first 90 minutes plus stoppage only), the postponem…
Full 5-point rule check →
Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Xinjiang Flying Tigers

Polymarket

Named source: Official result (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (100%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Liaoning Flying Leopards more than 99% and Xinjiang Flying Tigers less than 1% in “Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Xinjiang Flying Tigers”. It rose 24 points today, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 7:35 AM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Spread: Panthers (-5.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NFL official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (99%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Panthers less than 1% and Buccaneers more than 99% in “Spread: Panthers (-5.5)”. It fell 38 points today, and there are more sellers than buyers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a lower price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NFL final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Over less than 1% and Under more than 99% in “Raptors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5”. It fell 61 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 7:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…
Full 5-point rule check →
Spread: Knicks (-9.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Knicks less than 1% and Magic more than 99% in “Spread: Knicks (-9.5)”. It fell 44 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 7:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Magic". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If th…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Spread: Jazz (-3.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Jazz less than 1% and Lakers more than 99% in “Spread: Jazz (-3.5)”. It fell 48 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 5:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Lakers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If t…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NHL official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Oilers less than 1% and Maple Leafs more than 99% in “Spread: Oilers (-1.5)”. It fell 40 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NHL final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Houston vs. Utah: O/U 39.5

Polymarket

Named source: NCAA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Over less than 1% and Under more than 99% in “Houston vs. Utah: O/U 39.5”. It fell 87 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NCAA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…
Full 5-point rule check →
Steelers vs. Saints: O/U 46.5

Polymarket

Named source: NFL official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Over less than 1% and Under more than 99% in “Steelers vs. Saints: O/U 46.5”. It fell 44 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NFL final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…
Full 5-point rule check →
Spread: Vikings (-14.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NFL official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (98%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Vikings about 5% and Colts about 95% in “Spread: Vikings (-14.5)”. It fell 18 points today, and there are more sellers than buyers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a lower price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NFL final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Broncos vs. Cardinals: O/U 44.5

Polymarket

Named source: NFL official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (100%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Over more than 99% and Under less than 1% in “Broncos vs. Cardinals: O/U 44.5”. It rose 55 points today, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NFL final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 4:05 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Club León FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?

Polymarket

Named source: Official league statsFine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (100%)Rule note: 90 minutes only, a draw settles No
The short version:Traders put the chance of Club León FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC ending in a draw at more than 99%. It rose 74 points today, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price. Low surprise risk: the official result after 90 minutes settles it, and extra time does not count.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Official statistics of the governing body / event organizer; backups: Flashscore, Sofascore; credible reporting as a last resort
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026 (scheduled start; start time not in rules, venue lists 7:00 PM ET) [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this contract counts the first 90 minutes plus stoppage only), the postponem…
Full 5-point rule check →
Spread: Rams (-21.5)

Polymarket

Named source: NFL official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Rams less than 1% and Raiders more than 99% in “Spread: Rams (-21.5)”. It fell 6 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NFL final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 4:25 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open until the game is played) and c…
Full 5-point rule check →
49ers vs. Falcons: O/U 52.5

Polymarket

Named source: NFL official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Over less than 1% and Under more than 99% in “49ers vs. Falcons: O/U 52.5”. It fell 40 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NFL final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Oct 25, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will CA Huracán win on 2026-10-24?

Polymarket

Named source: Official league statsFine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: 90 minutes only, a draw settles No
The short version:Traders put the chance of CA Huracán winning on 2026-10-24 at less than 1%. It fell 17 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other. Low surprise risk: the official result after 90 minutes settles it, and extra time does not count.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Official statistics of the governing body / event organizer; backups: Flashscore, Sofascore; credible reporting as a last resort
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026 (scheduled start; start time not in rules, venue lists 9:30 PM ET) [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this contract counts the first 90 minutes plus stoppage only), the postponem…
Full 5-point rule check →
Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 224.5

Polymarket

Named source: NBA official (implied)Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (100%)Rule note: full game including overtime
The short version:Traders give Over more than 99% and Under less than 1% in “Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 224.5”. It rose 36 points today, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)The rules name no source; the official NBA final result is the implied reference
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 24, 2026, 8:30 PM ET (scheduled start) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesMatch / Game Final
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market w…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion (this total includes overtime), the postponement rule (Polymarket holds open…
Full 5-point rule check →
Fed interest-rate decision: December 8 to 9, 2026 FOMC meeting (with SEP)

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: federalreserve.govFine-print risk: Low (20/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (65%)Rule note: the announcement counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike after the December 2026 meeting at about 77%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sellers than buyers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a lower price. Low surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)FOMC post-meeting statement (Federal Reserve Board)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneFOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 (with Summary of Economic Projections; press conference at 2:30 PM ET). [America/New_Yor…
  3. 3. What counts as YesAnnounced
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)Polymarket: no statement by the end date of the next scheduled meeting → "No change". Note the baseline is the level immediately prior to the December meeting,…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCommon trap: traders treat "Fed cuts in December" (change vs. pre-meeting level) and "Fed funds upper bound at or below X after December" (level) as the same c…
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Resolution-Rule Cards · PolyTruth