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Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Named source: rik.parlament.gov.rs (tiebreak) · End date Oct 25, 7:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of the Student List winning 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election at about 98%.

It rose 84 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

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The details

Rule note: seat / electoral certificationSettled by rik.parlament.gov.rs (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
Seat / Electoral Certification

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  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (rik.parlament.gov.rs) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (election day); hard deadline Wed, Mar 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET Deadline: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (election day). Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with rik.parlament.gov.rs deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: rik.parlament.gov.rs (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: rik.parlament.gov.rs (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk: Low (5/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 5
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (rik.parlament.gov.rs) decides if ambiguous · https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/
2.
Deadline and time zone
Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (election day); hard deadline Wed, Mar 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…cast in the election. Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named electoral list. Votes attribute…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with rik.parlament.gov.rs deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid vote won by the electoral list “Student List – Students Win” (Student List) in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by “Student List – Students Win” (Student List) divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named electoral list. Votes attributed to another list or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).

Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth