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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?

.gov source: federalreserve.gov · End date Dec 9, 6:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of a Fed rate cut of half a point or more after the December 2026 meeting at less than 1%.

It is about flat today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other.

Low surprise risk: the Fed’s 2:00 PM ET announcement on Dec 9 settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by .gov source: federalreserve.gov
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
Announced

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: FOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 (with Summary of Economic Projections. Common trap: traders treat "Fed cuts in December" (change vs. pre-meeting level) and "Fed funds upper bound at or below X after December" (level) as the same contract.

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Dec 9, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Fed interest-rate decision: December 8 to 9, 2026 FOMC meeting (with SEP)

5-point rule check

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: federalreserve.gov
Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 20
1.
Who settles it (official source)
FOMC post-meeting statement (Federal Reserve Board) · https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
2.
Deadline and time zone
FOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 (with Summary of Economic Projections; press conference at 2:30 PM ET). America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
AnnouncedFOMC statement release. Dot-plot / SEP content does not affect settlement.
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
Polymarket: no statement by the end date of the next scheduled meeting → "No change". Note the baseline is the level immediately prior to the December meeting, so an October cut is already in the baseline.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Common trap: traders treat "Fed cuts in December" (change vs. pre-meeting level) and "Fed funds upper bound at or below X after December" (level) as the same contract. If October already moved rates, these settle differently. Venue display times: Polymarket lists resolution dates in UTC; the statement is scheduled in ET.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (Fed Decision in December, event fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632): Defined by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. Resolves to the basis-point change in the upper bound versus the level prior to the Federal Reserve December 8 to 9, 2026 meeting. Any off-grid change is rounded up to the nearest 25 bps. Resolution source: the official FOMC statement after the December 8 to 9, 2026 meeting (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, resolves to "No change".

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXFEDDECISION / KXFED December 2026 contracts): Source Agency is the Federal Reserve Board. KXFEDDECISION measures the action at the December meeting, whereas KXFED level contracts settle on whether the federal funds target upper bound is strictly above a stated rate after the December meeting. Traders crossing between a Polymarket December "change" bracket and a Kalshi rate-level strike face baseline risk if an unscheduled move occurs before December 8.

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth