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Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls · End date Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the North Carolina Senate race in 2026 at about 96%.

It dipped 0.5 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: seat / electoral certificationSettled by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls
Fine-print risk
Low (25/100)
Seat / Electoral Certification

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not. Calls races on and after election night. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting.

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls
Fine-print risk: Low (25/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 25
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
2.
Deadline and time zone
Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…s, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on certification, and media calls can conflict with official results.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth