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Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?

Named source: Election Commission · End date Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of the Democratic Party winning the NJ-02 House seat at about 20%.

It rose 1 point today, and buyers and sellers near the price are about even, so neither side dominates the order book.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

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The details

Rule note: seat / electoral certification, time zone not statedSettled by Election Commission
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
Seat / Electoral Certification

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Official election authority (Election Commission). Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with no stated cutoff timezone. Cutoff: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls) Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM (venue end date (time zone not stated). Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with Election Commission deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: Election Commission (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

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Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: Election Commission
Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 20
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Official election authority (Election Commission) · https://www.fec.gov/
2.
Deadline and time zone
Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls) unspecified
3.
What counts as Yes
Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically t…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with Election Commission deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth