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Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus · End date Dec 31, 12:00 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Mojtaba Khamenei being head of state in Iran end of 2026 at about 85%.

It dipped 1 point today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

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The details

Rule note: stated conditionNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
Stated Condition

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

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Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus
Fine-print risk: Low (15/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 15
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
2.
Deadline and time zone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET."
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth