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Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Named source: lmarena.ai · End date Dec 31, 12:00 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Google having the best AI model at the end of December 2026 at about 37%.

It dipped 4 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: leaderboard snapshotSettled by lmarena.ai
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
Leaderboard Snapshot

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on LMArena / Chatbot Arena leaderboard (lmarena.ai), style control off. Is read at the stated check time. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Leaderboard Snapshot" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Polymarket reads lmarena.ai at a fixed check time with style control off.

Source named: lmarena.ai (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: lmarena.ai
Fine-print risk: Low (0/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 0
1.
Who settles it (official source)
LMArena / Chatbot Arena leaderboard (lmarena.ai), style control off · https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text
2.
Deadline and time zone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Leaderboard SnapshotSettles on the leaderboard as checked at the stated time (style control off); ties broken by score, then alphabetically. Rank changes after the check do not count. Rule text: "…g to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmaren…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket reads lmarena.ai at a fixed check time with style control off; other venues may use a different view (style control on, a different category) or check time, so the #1 model can differ.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth