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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

Named source: polymarket.com · End date Nov 4, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Flávio Bolsonaro winning Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate at about 33%.

It fell 9 points today, and there are more sellers than buyers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a lower price.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: observed event, time zone not statedSettled by polymarket.com
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
Observed Event

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: polymarket.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Observed Event" trigger with no stated cutoff timezone. Cutoff: Sun, Oct 25, 2026 (election day) Deadline: Sun, Oct 25, 2026 (election day) (time zone not stated). Polymarket Senate control includes the Vice-President tiebreaker and falls back to the party of the first President Pro Tempore chosen when the next Congress convenes.

Source named: polymarket.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: polymarket.com
Fine-print risk: Low (15/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 15
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Named URL in rules: polymarket.com · https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election
2.
Deadline and time zone
Sun, Oct 25, 2026 (election day) unspecified
3.
What counts as Yes
Observed EventSettles when the described event is observed and reported by the named source. Rule text: "…be sworn in as a result of the election, and the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the midterm election…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
In the event that any constituent market resolves to "Other," this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve according to the sources named in the three markets linked above.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket Senate control includes the Vice-President tiebreaker and falls back to the party of the first President Pro Tempore chosen when the next Congress convenes; House ties fall to the first elected Speaker. Kalshi's control-of-chamber contracts define control in their own contract terms (certification and swearing-in rules), so a disputed or late-called seat can settle on different timelines.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

The runoff round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. The United States midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches all three of the following: the winner of the Brazilian presidential election, the first Prime Minister of Israel to be sworn in as a result of the election, and the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the midterm elections. For full rules for the Brazilian presidential election, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election For full rules for the Israeli Prime Minister, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election For full rules for the United States Senate control, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026 Additional options may be added to this market between market creation and resolution. In the event that any constituent market resolves to "Other," this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve according to the sources named in the three markets linked above.

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth