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Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?

No source named in rules · End date Mar 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Donald Trump winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027 at about 9%.

It rose 0.5 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other.

Low surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

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The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo source named
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
Announced

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on No resolution source named in the rules text. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Fri, Mar 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

No resolution source named in the rules

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

No source named in rules
Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 20
1.
Who settles it (official source)
No resolution source named in the rules text
2.
Deadline and time zone
Fri, Mar 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
AnnouncedAn official announcement is enough; implementation is not required. Rule text: "…l or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market wi…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth