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Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

Named source: CME / NYMEX · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Crude Oil reaching a new all-time high by December 31 at about 14%.

It rose 1 point today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: stated conditionSettled by CME / NYMEX
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
Stated Condition

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on CME Group NYMEX/COMEX contract data (cmegroup.com). Updates during exchange trading hours. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026 (date from market title) Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026 (date from market title). Polymarket reads CME / NYMEX intraday prints for the active-month contract, so one 1-minute wick can count.

Source named: CME / NYMEX (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: CME / NYMEX
Fine-print risk: Low (0/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 0
1.
Who settles it (official source)
CME Group NYMEX/COMEX contract data (cmegroup.com) · https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html
2.
Deadline and time zone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026 (date from market title) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified d…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket reads CME / NYMEX intraday prints for the active-month contract, so one 1-minute wick can count. Contracts that settle on an exchange's official daily settlement price can come out differently on the same day; also check how each venue handles the contract roll and holiday trading hours.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth