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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

Named source: Election Commission (tiebreak) · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of any presidential candidate winning outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election at less than 1%.

It dipped 4 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

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The details

Rule note: seat / electoral certificationSettled by Election Commission (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
Seat / Electoral Certification

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  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (Election Commission) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET) Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with Election Commission deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: Election Commission (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: Election Commission (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk: Low (5/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 5
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (Election Commission) decides if ambiguous
2.
Deadline and time zone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the C…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round, or if a candidate secures more than half of the valid votes but voter turnout is not more than half of registered voters. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with Election Commission deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026, with a second round on November 1, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round, or if a candidate secures more than half of the valid votes but voter turnout is not more than half of registered voters. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth