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Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Named source: Primary exchange listing · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Anthropic's market cap being between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day at about 29%.

It rose 3 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other.

Low surprise risk: only the price at the official close counts, not moves during the day.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by Primary exchange listing
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
Market-Close Snapshot

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Primary exchange's official listing page (official closing price × shares outstanding). Publishes the official close each trading day. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours excluded) and UMA oracle adjudication if share-count methodologies (basic vs. diluted, share classes) conflict.

Source named: Primary exchange listing (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: Primary exchange listing
Fine-print risk: Low (5/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 5
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Primary exchange's official listing page (official closing price × shares outstanding)
2.
Deadline and time zone
Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). As of U.S. regular-session market close (4:00 PM ET on NYSE/Nasdaq; after-hours trades excluded). If the stated date falls on a weekend or exchange holiday (e.g. Sat Oct 31, 2026), the last regular trading close prior to that date governs. America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Market-Close SnapshotSettles on the value at the regular-session close on the stated date. Intraday touches before the close and after-hours moves do not count. Rule text: "…l resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 3…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours excluded) and UMA oracle adjudication if share-count methodologies (basic vs. diluted, share classes) conflict. Kalshi's market-cap contracts must name an explicit reference source and expiration time in their CFTC-filed contract terms, so a photo finish can settle differently on each venue.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth