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Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

Named source: Electoral Court (tiebreak) · End date Oct 4, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Allyson winning the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election at less than 1%.

It fell 64 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

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The details

Rule note: seat / electoral certificationSettled by Electoral Court (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
Seat / Electoral Certification

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (Electoral Court) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) Deadline: Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with Electoral Court deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: Electoral Court (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

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Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: Electoral Court (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk: Low (5/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 5
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (Electoral Court) decides if ambiguous
2.
Deadline and time zone
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the S…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with Electoral Court deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth