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Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?

Source: Credible-reporting consensus · End date Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Yes about 27% on “Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026”.

It dipped 2 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: observed event, UTC deadlineNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
Observed Event

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Observed Event" trigger with a UTC cutoff (8:00 PM ET in summer, 7:00 PM ET in winter). Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC (date from market title) Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC (date from market title). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensus
Fine-print risk: Low (15/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 15
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider) · https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d
2.
Deadline and time zone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC (date from market title) UTC
3.
What counts as Yes
Observed EventSettles when the described event is observed and reported by the named source. Rule text: "…s market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, thi…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d). The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare. Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed. The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth