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SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 26?

Named source: Pyth 1m candle · End date Oct 26, 4:00 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 26”.

It rose 39 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders.

Low surprise risk: only the price at the official close counts, not moves during the day.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by Pyth 1m candle
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
Market-Close Snapshot

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Pyth 1-minute candles (pyth.network). Updates continuously (oracle / index feed). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 9:30 AM ET. Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours excluded) and UMA oracle adjudication if share-count methodologies (basic vs. diluted, share classes) conflict.

Source named: Pyth 1m candle (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 26?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: Pyth 1m candle
Fine-print risk: Low (5/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 5
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Pyth 1-minute candles (pyth.network) · https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD
2.
Deadline and time zone
Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 9:30 AM ET. As of U.S. regular-session market close (4:00 PM ET on NYSE/Nasdaq; after-hours trades excluded). If the stated date falls on a weekend or exchange holiday (e.g. Sat Oct 31, 2026), the last regular trading close prior to that date governs. America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Market-Close SnapshotSettles on the value at the regular-session close on the stated date. Intraday touches before the close and after-hours moves do not count. Rule text: "…nday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours excluded) and UMA oracle adjudication if share-count methodologies (basic vs. diluted, share classes) conflict. Kalshi's market-cap contracts must name an explicit reference source and expiration time in their CFTC-filed contract terms, so a photo finish can settle differently on each venue.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 26, 2026 is lower than the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 26?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth