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Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls · End date Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Wes Moore winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at less than 1%.

It is about flat today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other.

Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: seat / electoral certification, time zone not statedSettled by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
Seat / Electoral Certification

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree). Calls races on and after election night. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with no stated cutoff timezone. Cutoff: Tue, Nov 7, 2028 (election day) Deadline: Tue, Nov 7, 2028 (election day) (time zone not stated). Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting.

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls
Fine-print risk: Medium (30/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 30
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree)
2.
Deadline and time zone
Tue, Nov 7, 2028 (election day) unspecified
3.
What counts as Yes
Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…s, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on certification, and media calls can conflict with official results.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth