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Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?

.gov source: federalregister.gov · End date Nov 29, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of PSOE winning the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election at about 19%.

It fell 6 points today, and there are more sellers than buyers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a lower price.

Low surprise risk: the Federal Register settles it based on the condition as written.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: seat / electoral certificationSettled by .gov source: federalregister.gov
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
Seat / Electoral Certification

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Register / Congress.gov. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Tue, Nov 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) Deadline: Tue, Nov 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

Next official event: Federal Register publication, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

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Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

.gov source: federalregister.gov
Fine-print risk: Low (15/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 15
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Federal Register / Congress.gov · https://www.federalregister.gov/
2.
Deadline and time zone
Tue, Nov 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this el…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists nationwide, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) nationwide in this election, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists nationwide, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People’s Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).

Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth