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Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Named source: Official party sources

The short version

How to read this page

There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

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The details

No live order bookRule note: seat / electoral certificationSettled by Official party sources
Chance the crowd gives Yes
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no live price
Buyers vs sellers near the price
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no order book read
Fine-print risk
Low (25/100)
Seat / Electoral Certification
  • Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted). Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Tue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) Deadline: Tue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: Official party sources (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sources
Fine-print risk: Low (25/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 25
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
2.
Deadline and time zone
Tue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Seat / Electoral CertificationRequires the candidate to win and accept the party's nomination (normally at the convention); leading in delegates or polls is not enough. A later replacement of the nominee does not change the result. Rule text: "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on certification, and media calls can conflict with official results.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth