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Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

Source: Credible-reporting consensus · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will no listed leader be out before 2027? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of no listed leader being out before 2027 at about 37%.

It fell 10 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now.

Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
Announced

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensus
Fine-print risk: Medium (30/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 30
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)
2.
Deadline and time zone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
AnnouncedAn official announcement is enough; implementation is not required. Rule text: "…ted individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from off…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on certification, and media calls can conflict with official results.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth