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Will Lamine Yamal finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Named source: UEFA official · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will Lamine Yamal finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Lamine Yamal finishing 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or at about 65%.

It dipped 4 points today, and buy orders and sell orders waiting near the price are about even right now.

Low surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by UEFA official
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
Announced

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on UEFA official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (scheduled start). Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (see rules) and cancellation handling (per the rules vs. void/refund on sportsbooks and Kalshi's own contract terms).

Source named: UEFA official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Lamine Yamal finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: UEFA official
Fine-print risk: Low (5/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 5
1.
Who settles it (official source)
UEFA official results; credible reporting as a last resort
2.
Deadline and time zone
Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (scheduled start); hard deadline Mon, Nov 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
AnnouncedAn official announcement is enough; implementation is not required. Rule text: "…ce Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used."
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If two or more players are tied for 3rd place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (see rules) and cancellation handling (per the rules vs. void/refund on sportsbooks and Kalshi's own contract terms).
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 3rd place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 3rd place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Lamine Yamal finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth