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Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Named source: fe.secondmarket.com

The short version

How to read this page

There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available.

Low surprise risk: the named source’s first published number settles it, and later revisions do not count.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

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The details

No live order bookRule note: first number counts, no revisionsSettled by fe.secondmarket.com
Chance the crowd gives Yes
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no live price
Buyers vs sellers near the price
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no order book read
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
Preliminary Print
  • Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: fe.secondmarket.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles strictly on the initial agency release. Later benchmark revisions will not flip the outcome. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (deadline). Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours excluded) and UMA oracle adjudication if share-count methodologies (basic vs. diluted, share classes) conflict.

Source named: fe.secondmarket.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: fe.secondmarket.com
Fine-print risk: Low (0/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 0
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Named URL in rules: fe.secondmarket.com · https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data
2.
Deadline and time zone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 1:00 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Preliminary PrintSettles on the first published figure; later revisions do not change the outcome. Rule text: "…Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erro…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours excluded) and UMA oracle adjudication if share-count methodologies (basic vs. diluted, share classes) conflict. Kalshi's market-cap contracts must name an explicit reference source and expiration time in their CFTC-filed contract terms, so a photo finish can settle differently on each venue.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth