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Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?

.gov source: sec.gov · End date Dec 15, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Yes about 95% on “Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026”.

It rose 22 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now.

Medium surprise risk: the SEC settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: stated conditionSettled by .gov source: sec.gov
Fine-print risk
Medium (35/100)
Stated Condition

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Securities and Exchange Commission. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Tue, Dec 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) Deadline: Tue, Dec 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

Next official event: SEC announcement, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

.gov source: sec.gov
Fine-print risk: Medium (35/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 35
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Securities and Exchange Commission · https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases
2.
Deadline and time zone
Tue, Dec 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date."
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated rule for a delayed release (e.g. a government shutdown) or for later revisions to the figure.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth