Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?
5-point rule check
Polymarket
Source: Credible-reporting consensus- Source
- Deadline
- Counts as Yes
- Backup rules
- Other venues
Source: Credible-reporting consensus · End date Nov 30, 3:59 PM ET · Live market: Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗
Traders give Yes about 57% on “Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30”.
It rose 2 points today, and there are more buyers than sellers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a higher price.
Medium surprise risk: it needs confirmed reports from several sources, not a single headline, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.
Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.
Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.
Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro
Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)
Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.
Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.
See Pro5-point rule check
Polymarket
Source: Credible-reporting consensusThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the East-West oil pipeline is targeted by a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Riyadh Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The East-West oil pipeline refers to Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline (also known as Petroline), which carries crude oil from Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, including its pumping stations. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that impacts the East-West oil pipeline. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on the East-West oil pipeline do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact the East-West oil pipeline if it directly impacts the pipeline or any of its pumping stations. The occurrence and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Riyadh Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia and a consensus of credible reporting.