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Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?

Named source: binance.com (1m candle) · End date Oct 26, 12:00 PM ET · Live market: Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Up about 37% and Down about 64% in “Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26”.

It fell 14 points today, and there are more sellers than buyers near the price right now, so the order book is weighted toward a lower price.

Low surprise risk: only the price at the official close counts, not moves during the day.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: only the close countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)
Fine-print risk
Low (0/100)
Timestamp Candle Close

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle Close).

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)
Fine-print risk: Low (0/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 0
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored · https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
2.
Deadline and time zone
Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Timestamp Candle CloseOnly the final "Close" of the single 1-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle at the stated timestamp counts. Earlier spikes or dips during the day do not matter. Rule text: "This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 25 '26 12:…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle Close). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. KXBTC / KXBTCD) settle on a CF Benchmarks index such as the Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), averaged over the 60 seconds before the stated time across multiple spot exchanges. A brief binance.com USDT wick can settle Polymarket YES while Kalshi settles NO.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 26?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth