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Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus · End date Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026”.

It dipped 0.5 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other.

Low surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

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The details

Rule note: the announcement countsNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Low (15/100)
Announced

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title). Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold open for a confirmation window when reports conflict.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

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Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

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Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus
Fine-print risk: Low (15/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 15
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
2.
Deadline and time zone
Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
AnnouncedAn official announcement is enough; implementation is not required. Rule text: "…ry disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket ceasefire/clash rules exclude intercepted missiles, debris, cyberattacks and unilateral pauses, and hold open for a confirmation window when reports conflict. Other venues may define a qualifying event differently, so similar-looking contracts can settle on different facts.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth