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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Named source: Chainlink data stream · End date Oct 25, 4:45 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET”.

It fell 50 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other.

Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: stated condition, time zone not statedSettled by Chainlink data stream
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
Stated Condition

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Chainlink price data stream (data.chain.link). Updates continuously (oracle / index feed). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with no stated cutoff timezone. Cutoff: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 4:30 PM (date from market title) Deadline: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 4:30 PM (date from market title) (time zone not stated). Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (Chainlink data stream).

Source named: Chainlink data stream (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: Chainlink data stream
Fine-print risk: Medium (30/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 30
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Chainlink price data stream (data.chain.link) · https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams
2.
Deadline and time zone
Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 4:30 PM (date from market title) unspecified
3.
What counts as Yes
Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range."
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (Chainlink data stream); if that feed or chart is down, or prints an outlier wick, there is no stated backup index and the outcome goes to UMA dispute.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (Chainlink data stream). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. KXBTC / KXBTCD) settle on a CF Benchmarks index such as the Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), averaged over the 60 seconds before the stated time across multiple spot exchanges. A brief Chainlink USDT wick can settle Polymarket YES while Kalshi settles NO.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth