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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12PM ET

Named source: binance.com · End date Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12PM ET”.

It rose 50 points today, and there is too little trading near the price to say whether buyers or sellers outnumber the other.

Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. Not advice and not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: stated condition, time zone not statedSettled by binance.com
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
Stated Condition

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Binance BTC/USDT (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on the condition as written with no stated cutoff timezone. Cutoff: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 12:00 PM (date from market title) Deadline: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 12:00 PM (date from market title) (time zone not stated). Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com).

Source named: binance.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12PM ET

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com
Fine-print risk: Medium (30/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 30
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Binance BTC/USDT (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored · https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
2.
Deadline and time zone
Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 12:00 PM (date from market title) unspecified
3.
What counts as Yes
Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title."
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com); if that feed or chart is down, or prints an outlier wick, there is no stated backup index and the outcome goes to UMA dispute.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. KXBTC / KXBTCD) settle on a CF Benchmarks index such as the Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), averaged over the 60 seconds before the stated time across multiple spot exchanges. A brief binance.com USDT wick can settle Polymarket YES while Kalshi settles NO.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12PM ET: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth