Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

.gov source: federalreserve.gov · End date Dec 9, 6:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Announcement Is EnoughOfficial Feed Active (FED)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Announced

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. Latest FED release: "Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on August 17, September 9, and September 16, 2026" (12d ago).
Settlement edge / trap to watch: A qualifying official announcement settles YES; implementation is not required. Cutoff: FOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 (with Summary of Economic Projections. Common trap: traders treat "Fed cuts in December" (change vs. pre-meeting level) and "Fed funds upper bound at or below X after December" (level) as the same contract.

Latest Official Agency Releases (FED)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

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Fed interest-rate decision: December 8 to 9, 2026 FOMC meeting (with SEP)

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: federalreserve.gov

Low Trap Risk (20/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 20

Named primary resolution source

FOMC post-meeting statement (Federal Reserve Board) · https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

FOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 (with Summary of Economic Projections; press conference at 2:30 PM ET). America/New_York

Action trigger

AnnouncedFOMC statement release. Dot-plot / SEP content does not affect settlement.

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

Polymarket: no statement by the end date of the next scheduled meeting → "No change". Note the baseline is the level immediately prior to the December meeting, so an October cut is already in the baseline.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Common trap: traders treat "Fed cuts in December" (change vs. pre-meeting level) and "Fed funds upper bound at or below X after December" (level) as the same contract. If October already moved rates, these settle differently. Venue display times: Polymarket lists resolution dates in UTC; the statement is scheduled in ET.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (Fed Decision in December, event fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632): Defined by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. Resolves to the basis-point change in the upper bound versus the level prior to the Federal Reserve December 8 to 9, 2026 meeting. Any off-grid change is rounded up to the nearest 25 bps. Resolution source: the official FOMC statement after the December 8 to 9, 2026 meeting (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, resolves to "No change".

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXFEDDECISION / KXFED December 2026 contracts): Source Agency is the Federal Reserve Board. KXFEDDECISION measures the action at the December meeting, whereas KXFED level contracts settle on whether the federal funds target upper bound is strictly above a stated rate after the December meeting. Traders crossing between a Polymarket December "change" bracket and a Kalshi rate-level strike face baseline risk if an unscheduled move occurs before December 8.