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Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

.gov source: federalreserve.gov · End date Dec 9, 6:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Announcement Is EnoughOfficial Feed Active (FED)
Market Implied Odds
Pro
live price on Pro
Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)
Pro
depth read on Pro
Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk
Low Trap Risk (25/100)
Announced
  • Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. Latest FED release: "Minutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on August 17, September 9, and September 16, 2026" (11d ago).
  • Settlement edge / trap to watch: A qualifying official announcement settles YES; implementation is not required. Cutoff: Wed, Dec 9, 2026 (deadline) (timezone not stated). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

Latest Official Agency Releases (FED)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

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Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Polymarket

.gov source: federalreserve.gov
Low Trap Risk (25/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk Low 25
1.
Named primary resolution source
Federal Reserve Board / FOMC · https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
Wed, Dec 9, 2026 (deadline) unspecified
3.
Action trigger
AnnouncedAn official announcement is enough; implementation is not required. Rule text: "…idered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetary…"
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth