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Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?

Named source: youtube.com · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Stated ConditionGoverned by youtube.com
Market Implied Odds
Pro
live price on Pro
Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)
Pro
depth read on Pro
Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk
Low Trap Risk (15/100)
Stated Condition
  • Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: youtube.com. Named URL in rules: youtube.com. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: youtube.com (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

See Pro

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: youtube.com
Low Trap Risk (15/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk Low 15
1.
Named primary resolution source
Named URL in rules: youtube.com · https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York
3.
Action trigger
Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”."
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth