PolyTruthPolyTruth
Log inSign up

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

No source named in rules · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Announcement Is EnoughNo Source Named
Market Implied Odds
Pro
live price on Pro
Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)
Pro
depth read on Pro
Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk
Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)
Announced
  • Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on No resolution source named in the rules text. No resolution source named in the rules text. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Settlement edge / trap to watch: A qualifying official announcement settles YES; implementation is not required. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

No resolution source named in the rules

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

See Pro

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket

No source named in rules
Moderate Trap Risk (35/100)
  1. Source
  2. Cutoff TZ
  3. Trigger
  4. Fallback
  5. Cross-Venue
Trap risk Moderate 35
1.
Named primary resolution source
No resolution source named in the rules text
2.
Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) America/New_York
3.
Action trigger
AnnouncedA qualifying official announcement is enough. Rule text: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice…"
4.
Delay / cancellation / revision fallback
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.
5.
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · PolyTruth