Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Named source: db.cec.gov.tw (tiebreak) · End date Nov 28, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Seat / Electoral CertificationGoverned by db.cec.gov.tw (tiebreak)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Seat / Electoral Certification

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (db.cec.gov.tw) decides if ambiguous. Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (db.cec.gov.tw) decides if ambiguous; publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (election day); hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET Cutoff: Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (election day). Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with db.cec.gov.tw deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: db.cec.gov.tw (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

See Pro

Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Polymarket

Named source: db.cec.gov.tw (tiebreak)

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 5

Named primary resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (db.cec.gov.tw) decides if ambiguous · https://db.cec.gov.tw/

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (election day); hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET America/New_York

Action trigger

Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the C…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with db.cec.gov.tw deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).