Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Source: Credible-reporting consensus · End date Oct 26, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Stated ConditionConsensus Source (No Single Feed)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (15/100)

Stated Condition

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider); has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on the condition as written with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (election day); hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET Cutoff: Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (election day). Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensus

Low Trap Risk (15/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 15

Named primary resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (election day); hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET America/New_York

Action trigger

Stated ConditionResolution condition as written: "This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election."

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.