Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Source: Credible-reporting consensus · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Favors NO on Headline ChatterConsensus Source (No Single Feed)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (15/100)

Effective

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider); has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle YES; formal signing/enactment before the cutoff is required. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (deadline). If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensus

Low Trap Risk (15/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 15

Named primary resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider) · https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York

Action trigger

EffectiveRequires the measure to actually take effect; signing or announcing alone does not count. Rule text: "…ezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.