Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Named source: Election Commission (tiebreak) · End date Oct 25, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

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The PolyTruth Read: Official Data & Tape Lean

Tape Lean: ProRules Lean: Seat / Electoral CertificationGoverned by Election Commission (tiebreak)

Market Implied Odds

Pro

live price on Pro

Orderbook Pressure (±5¢)

Pro

depth read on Pro

Resolution Hurdle & Trap Risk

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Seat / Electoral Certification

Official source & catalyst check: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (Election Commission) decides if ambiguous. Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (Election Commission) decides if ambiguous; publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Settlement edge / trap to watch: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) Cutoff: Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with Election Commission deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: Election Commission (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public orderbook, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data; it is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, CLOB chart & orderbook depthPro

Live prices, 15-minute deltas, orderbook depth, and move attribution for this market are on Pro.

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Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Polymarket

Named source: Election Commission (tiebreak)

Low Trap Risk (5/100)

Source
Cutoff TZ
Trigger
Fallback
Cross-Venue

Trap risk Low 5

Named primary resolution source

Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (Election Commission) decides if ambiguous

Cutoff date, timestamp & timezone

Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) America/New_York

Action trigger

Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the C…"

Delay / cancellation / revision fallback

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with Election Commission deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).